PRLog (Press Release) – Mar 30, 2011 – BMI View: We estimate that Thailand's construction sector saw a positive reversal in 2010 after two years of poor growth - a contraction of 5.3% in 2008 and growth of 0.03% in 2009. Real growth for Thailand's construction sector is forecast to reach 7.0% in 2010 and achieve a nominal construction value of THB270.9bn (US$8.89bn). Besides base effects, this relatively high growth figure is attributed to the launch of the government's se helicop ter technology cond stimulus plan in March 2009: a three-year, THB1.43trn (US$47bn) programme that focuses primarily on infrastructure investment.
Key drivers from the past quarter include:
* The Thai government was initially prepared the launch of a series of infrastructure funds to seek private investment for public infrastructure projects in early 2011. However, the implementation of these funds look set to be delayed as state enterprise unions have voiced concerns about a loss of benefits once these state assets are transferred to the privately-held investment vehicles. * In July 2010, Thai finance minister Korn Chatikavanij said that the government plans to spend more than THB200bn (US$6.56bn) on rail development over the next five years in a bid to double the average speed of Thai rail services. The bulk of this investment is aimed at developing a pan-Asian high-speed railway network that will link various South East Asian countries with China. Urban railways to help ease traffic congestion in Bangkok are also in the pipeline, offering numerous opportunities for railway companies. * Electricity shortages are becoming a concern over the short term due to delays in implementing several independent power producer projects. Consequently, the Energy Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) received approval for a THB70bn investment plan approved to increase the country's power production to prevent a shortage crisis, reports The Nation.
Beyond 2010, BMI expects growth in the construction industry to revert back to pre-recession levels. The Thai government has pushed forward with a series of infrastructure projects to improve the country's electricity supply and transport links, but political tensions and a lack of funds present substantial downside risks to their execution. As such, we are forecasting the construction sector to trail behind economic growth going forward as construction gradually makes up a slightly smaller proportion of total GDP year-on-year (y-o-y) over the forecast period. In 2005, the sector made up 3.03% of GDP, which we expect to fall to 2.70% in 2010. We therefore expect the construction sector rc helicopter market place 's growth rate to accelerate only modestly beyond 2010, averaging 3.24% per annum between 2011 and 2015. Construction industry value will reach THB363.8bn (US$12.7bn) by 2015.
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