PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 22, 2011 – The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.54% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 10.5% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 7.88mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.07mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.69mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production averaged an estimated 10.03mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 11.66mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an av trash bins erage of 3.46mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 2.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 2.97mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 264bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 273bcm in 2015, and implies more than 8bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Colombia's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 was 4.31%, while its share of production is put at 4.98%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.95%, with the country accounting for 4.40% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
BMI calculates that Colombian real GDP rose by 3.9% in 2010 and we are assuming an average annual increase of 4.6% in 2010-2015. The government is working successfully to encourage international oil company (IOC) investment and boost near-term domestic oil production, aided by state-owned Ecopetrol. These efforts have been proving highly effective and we are now assuming oil and gas liquids production of 1.23mn b/d by 2015, with the country expected to pump 915,000b/d in 2011. Consumption is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 221,000b/d by this time. The country's export capability should therefore reach 1.00mn b/d by 2015. Gas consumption is forecast to increase from an estimated 9.0bcm in 2010 to 10.4bcm over the period, met by rising domestic production, which will also provide modest exports.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Colombian oil production of 72.3%, with crude volumes peaking at 1.47mn b/d in 2018 before declining to 1.38mn b/d by 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 26.8%, with growth averaging an assumed 2.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 250,000b/d by 2020. rc helicopter market place Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 11bcm in 2010 to 15bcm in 2018-2020. With demand growth of 34.4%, this implies peak export potential of 3.6bcm by 2018. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Col helicop ter technology ombia holds second place, behind only Brazil, in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. It ranks fourth, behind Venezuela, in BMI's updated upstream BERs, well ahead of Trinidad & Tobago in fifth. Although the absolute resource base is currently modest, the competitive environment is attractive and licensing terms have improved to become some of the best in the region. Country risk is moderate, and Colombia is well placed to retain its strong position in the league table. Colombia holds second place, ahead of Argentina and behind only Brazil, in BMI's downstream BERs, reflecting its oil demand growth outlook, refining capacity expansion plans, moderate country risk and low retail site intensity. Argentina is two points behind in the regional rankings but lacks the near-term potential to challenge Colombia.
For more information or to purchase this report, go
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar