PRLog (Press Release) – May 29, 2011 – The Peruvian mining sector looks set to grow by 8.3% in real terms to reach US$19bn in 2011, which will mark a slowdown in growth from 15.7% registered in 2010. This can be attributed to declining grades across the country's largest mines due to underinvestment, which explains our modest growth production forecasts for mined copper, tin, silver and gold in 2011. Despite falling grades across Peru's mining sector in 2011, we forecast the value of the Peruvian mining industry to grow by an average of 8.5% per annum from 2011 to 2015 in light of garbage compactor review major expansions across the sector.
Despite growing challenges to Peru's business environment in recent months - mainly the possible imposition of a mining tax - we expect that Peru will remain business friendly to ensure continuing investment in the sector. Indeed, given that many other mineral rich countries, such as Australia, Chile and Brazil, have implemented or suggested tax increases on the mining sector, its competitive advantage is unlikely to be damaged should it decide to go through with the tax. That said, we note the looming threat of strikes and the government's recent efforts to tackle longstanding environmental issues.
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Peru's mining sector has been amenable to foreign investment since the 1990s as successive governments have taken pro-business outlooks. At present, the vast majority of mining companies operating in Peru are foreign-owned and there has been little indication that the government is seeking to reverse this trend in the future. Peru's mineral royalty tax is relatively low at between 1% and 3%. However, many large-scale ongoing operations remain unaffected by the royalty due to previous contracts with the government, although the government's new tax proposal is seeking change this.
Overall, Peru's mining industry is dominated by foreign-owned companies, with private domestic entities owning most of the medium- and small-sized mining operations. Mined zinc, gold, copper and tin production is highly consolidated, while silver production is more fragmented. Going forward, we expect Peru's mining industry to continue to be dominated by foreign-owned companies given the government's pro-business outlook and with little indication that the government is seeking more control over the industry.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Peru Political SWOT - Peru Economic SWOT - Peru Business Environment SWOT Global Mining Outlook - Table: Main Frontier Mining Projects - Table: Lower Grades At Key Mines - Table: Uranium Developments - Table: Regulatory Issues - Table: Other Developments Industry Trends And Developments - Table: Peru's Key Expansion Plans - Table: Peru's Mining Industry Value, 2007-2015 Americas Mining Business Environment Ratings - Americas Mining Business Environment Ratings Political Outlook Industry Forecast - Tin: Decline In 2010, Flat Growth Over Forecast Period - Table: Peru's Tin Mine Production, 2007-2015 - Nickel: Norilsk To Lead Gradual Output Increase - Table: Expansion Plans - Table: Nickel Production, 2008-2015 - Zinc: Continued Decline In 2011 But Growth To Pick Up From 2012 - Table: Key Expansion Plans - Table: Peru's Zinc Mine Production, 2008-2015 - Copper: Production To Double by 2015 - Table: Main Expansion Plans - Table: Peru's Copper Production, 2008-2015 - Silver: Peru's Share Of Global Output To Decline - Table: Largest Expansion Plans - Table: Peru's Silver Production, 2008-2015 - Gold: Major Expansions To Lead Growth - Table: Key Expansion Plans - Table: Peru's Gold Mine Production, 2008-2015 Regulatory Development Competitive Landscape - Table: Operating Statistics 2010, US$mn Company Monitor - Xstrata - Grupo Mexico - Table: Grupo Mexico's Key Company Data (Consolidated Group), Fiscal Years Ending December 2006-2010 (US$mn) Minsur SA - Table: Minsur - Key Company Data, Fiscal Year Ended December 2006-2010 (US$mn) Commodities Forecasts - Aluminium - Copper - Lead - Nickel - Tin - Zinc - Gold Global Assumptions - Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 - Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) - Developed States - Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Emerging Markets - Table: Emerging Market's GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Consensus Forecasts - Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 Country Snapshot: Peru Demographic Data - Section 1: Population - Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 Kenmore Bisque 15 inchi - Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 - Section 2: Education And Healthcare - Table: Education, 2002-2005 - Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 - Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power - Table: Employment Indicators - Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) - Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 Business Environment Ratings Methodology - Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators - Table: Weighting Of Components
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